Official begin date is 12/1/2019 -- Please help me get started by registering and opining on some -- or all -- of the hot issues facing America and Americans.
I need your help, so send a link to your friends of all persuasions. Thanks!
Opinion polls influence what Americans think, but can the polls really be trusted? Are they really an accurate predictor of future events and behavior? Lots of people don't think so.
Public opinion analysts and professional polling organizations require financing and therein lies a poll's Achilles' heel. The public never knows who is funding the pollster and what, if any, influence the funding entity has on the poll questions and the pollsters. Do they have an agenda?
Public opinion polls play an important role in politics. They are used throughout the course of election campaigns by candidates and by the media to see which candidates are ahead and who is likely to emerge victorious. They are used to raise money. The results of these polls, in turn, largely determine where future campaign monies are to be spent and where each candidate's efforts will be concentrated until the close of the campaign.
Money! Money! Money! And money buys influence and money buys leverage, but what about the polls themselves?
Unless we do a deep-dive into the polls, we rarely know who was interviewed. When we do know, it's rarely beyond political affiliation. We never know under what conditions the interviews were conducted or by whom -- and the questions? Constructing polling questions is an art form. In many polls, the questions are worded to lead the respondent toward a certain response -- positive or negative.
Just how much can a pollster learn by asking 1,000 people what they think in a country of 200 million adults and then claim to be 95% to 97% accurate? The 2016 presidential election was a jarring event for polling in the United States. Pre-election polls fueled high-profile predictions that the likelihood of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency was about 90%, with estimates ranging from 71% to over 99%. When Donald Trump was declared the winner of the 2016 campaign in the early hours of November 9th, it came as a shock even to his own pollsters. There was, and continues to be, widespread consensus that the polls failed.
So why another poll?
Because this one is your hands. There is no middle-man or woman and with a little luck and your participation the goal is to grow a large pool of respondents -- well beyond the usual 1,000. You can see the wording of the simple, clear polling questions. You know the politics, gender, race, age, income and location of the respondents, characteristics you rarely see -- if ever. You may even submit the questions to be asked or request an ambiguous question be rewritten.
I need your help. I don't care who or what you are or what you believe, just participate! Help me grow a large respondent pool -- especially now, at the beginning.
Just look at the polls and tell us what you think.